Orlen can afford its 2.4 bn zloty windfall tax, but warns of investment cuts

Poland's biggest fuel company has the cash for its new windfall tax. It also has a warning: some of its planned investments may not happen.

Orlen reported its results on Thursday, and the numbers are big.

What did Orlen report?

After three quarters of this year, Orlen's consolidated net profit came to more than 21.4 bn zloty. That is over 13.6 bn zloty more than a year earlier. In the third quarter alone, the group earned 5.6 bn zloty net.

CEO Ireneusz Fąfara said the profit lets the company calmly meet its legal duties under the windfall tax law. For this period, that means paying around 2.4 bn zloty. Vice president Sławomir Jędrzejczyk added that the amount will be booked in the fourth quarter. Tax for later months will depend on future results.

Why the warning about investments?

Orlen planned to spend 36 bn zloty on investments this year. By the end of September it had spent 22.5 bn zloty. Jędrzejczyk said it is already November and the target is usually met at about 10% below plan. So this year's figure may be a bit lower again.

Then there is Lithuania. Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius said on Thursday that he had told Orlen about plans for a windfall tax on energy companies there. Orlen replied that more taxes would affect its investment plans at the Mažeikiai refinery, which it owns.

On Tuesday Fąfara said the company is weighing whether modernising Mažeikiai makes sense. The alternative, he said, is closing the plant. On Thursday he said Orlen will react depending on what Lithuania's government decides.

What is the windfall tax again?

In early October, President Karol Nawrocki signed the law and sent it to the Constitutional Tribunal for follow-up review. The tax is 60% on excess fuel profits earned from 1 March 2026 to 31 March 2027.

The base is revenue above the 2025 historical margin plus 20%. The minimum reference margin is 2%. For firms that do not produce fuel, the tax cannot exceed 50% of income or net profit.

The money is meant to pay for the third round of the Ceny Paliwa Niżej ("Lower Fuel Prices") package. It opens the way to temporarily cutting excise duty and VAT on fuel.

What's next?

Watch two things: how much tax Orlen owes for the coming months, and what Lithuania decides. Both could shape where the company spends its money next.