Heating with electricity in France? Your bills should stay stable this winter

Temperatures have dropped across France, and many of you have probably switched the heating back on. After months of rising fuel and gas prices, there is finally some good news for anyone heating with electricity.

What happened?

On Saturday, EDF chief Bernard Fontana said on France Inter radio that household electricity tariffs "are and will be stable until 1 February at least, and I could even say until the end of winter."

This applies to the regulated tariff (TRVE), which more than 20 million French households pay. It is set by the CRE, the national energy regulator, based on wholesale market trends over the previous 18 months, plus production, delivery and sales costs, and taxes.

Why should prices hold?

Wholesale prices stayed very low for most of this year, around 40 euros per megawatt-hour at the start of the year. They have climbed since the autumn, reaching nearly 100 euros at times. But that jump should not weigh too heavily on the CRE's February calculation.

There is also a political promise. On 7 October, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced the release of strategic oil stocks. He also said electricity prices should not rise this winter and asked EDF to maximise its output. Fontana said the government is expected to deliver on that.

France also looks better placed than its neighbours. Forward prices for 2027 stand at 113 euros per megawatt-hour in France, against 120 in Spain, 145 in Germany and 171 in Italy.

What about the longer term?

The CRE updates the regulated tariff every year on 1 February, so the guarantee after that date depends on the government keeping its word. The tariff fell about 15% in February 2025, then slipped 0.8% in February 2026. It rose 2.5% in August, partly because of heatwaves.

Over ten years, electricity prices are up 41%, including the standing charge, against 24% for general inflation, according to economic journalist Dominique Seux. Energy analyst Nicolas Goldberg warns that freezing prices now could lead to retroactive increases later.

For now, though, your winter electricity bill looks safe.